Listings Up 23%, Contracts Down 21%: The Gap Is Getting Wider
Mortgage rates finally took a week off. The bigger news: September's county data is in, and it shows the clearest gap of the year between how many homes are for sale and how many buyers are actually signing contracts.
Here's my weekly read on Montgomery County real estate. Rates held still for the first time since early September, and that's the good news. But September is the first month of full county listing data at these rates, and it shows buyers and sellers drifting further apart. Prices aren't crashing. Leverage is moving toward buyers faster than at any point this year.
What changed since last week:
- Rates held at 7.40%. That's the first week without a rise since early September.
- September county data: active listings up 22.7% from a year ago, pending sales down 21.0%, and price cuts hit a 2026 high (952).
- North Bethesda/Rockville condos (zip 20852): the listings I track went from 54 to 64 in a week, and pendings dropped from 4 to 2.
Rates stopped climbing. They didn't come back down.
After seven straight weekly increases, the 30-year fixed held at 7.40% for the week of October 15 (Freddie Mac). The 15-year ticked down to 6.71% from 6.73%. Call it a timeout, not a comeback. A buyer who got pre-approved in early September has lost about 6% of their buying power since then.
30-year fixed rate, weekly average. Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), 10/15/2026.
Here's what that means for a payment. On a ~$610,000 home with 20% down, you're at about $3,379 a month in principal and interest at 7.40%, compared with about $3,011 for the same house a year ago at 6.27%.
The real story: listings and buyers are moving in opposite directions
This is the chart I'd put on the fridge. Realtor.com's county data shows 2,328 active listings in September, up from 2,073 in August and up 22.7% from a year ago. Pending sales went the other way: 800, down from 913 in August and 1,013 last September. That's down 21.0% year over year.
Montgomery County active and pending listings, August vs. September 2026. Source: Realtor.com county housing inventory data via FRED (St. Louis Fed).
Put those together and you get the number I'm using with every client this week. A year ago there were about 53 buyers in contract for every 100 homes for sale in the county. This September there were 34. On top of that, 952listings took a price cut in September. That's up 25.6% from a year ago, the most of any month in 2026, and about 41% of everything on the market.
Pending listings per 100 active listings, Montgomery County. Source: Realtor.com county housing inventory data via FRED (St. Louis Fed).
Before anyone yells “crash,” prices are holding. The September county median sold price was about $610,000 (RPR), and Redfin's 3-month median of ~$609,636 is up 2.5% from a year ago. That's below August's $639,540 from Bright MLS, but that's a different source, normal fall seasonality, and fewer condo and townhome closings changing the mix. It's not a 4.6% drop. Well-priced homes that sold in September went in a median 19 days (RPR), while the median active listing has been sitting 40 days(Realtor.com, up from 34 a year ago). Both numbers are right: homes priced right still go fast, and everything else sits. Across the DC metro, Bright MLS has detached homes up 2.6%. Sellers are listing lower, too. The September median list price was $599,900, down 8.0% from a year ago. What's changing is leverage, not value. The homes priced for last spring are the ones sitting, and they're where the 952 price cuts came from.
North Bethesda and Rockville condos: the bench keeps getting longer.I've been saying for weeks that the condo slowdown here is sharper on the ground than the county numbers show. This week's data backs it up:
- Zip 20852 (the condo-heavy North Bethesda/Rockville corridor): 64 active, 2 pending, up from 54 active and 4 pending last week. (Resideline tracked sample.)
- North Bethesda condo building report: 41 active, 5 under contract. The ones that sold went for about 99.6% of list, but units under contract now took an average of 71 days to get there.
- Rockville-only condo data: I couldn't find a clean source again this week, so I'm not going to guess. Zip 20852 is the best proxy.
Bottom line: a condo that's priced right still gets close to full price. It just takes a lot longer than it used to, and the overpriced ones are stuck.
How the 9 areas I work compare
No single free source covers all nine areas the same way, so I've labeled where every number comes from. Where I couldn't find current data, the table says so. I'm not filling in gaps with guesses.
| City | Median sold price | Days on market | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Bethesda | Unavailable (Sept). Zip 20852 6-mo. closed: $555,000 | Condos: 49 avg (sold since 4/20) | Zip 20852: 64 active / 2 pending. Condo set: 41 active / 5 under contract. |
| Rockville | $670,000 (zip 20850, 6-mo. closed) | Unavailable | Zip 20850: 35 active / 4 pending, the healthiest ratio I track. No Rockville-only condo data. |
| Bethesda | $1,350,000 (zip 20817, 6-mo. closed) | Unavailable | Zip 20817: 39 active / 2 pending. Zip 20814 unavailable this week. |
| Potomac | Unavailable (Sept) | Unavailable | No September source. August read ($1.30M, 14-day median) is for reference only. |
| Chevy Chase | $1,299,000 (zip 20815, 6-mo. closed) | Unavailable | 30 active / 2 pending. Middle half sold $661K to $1.81M. |
| Kensington | Unavailable (Sept) | Unavailable | No September source. Small samples aren’t quotable. |
| Silver Spring | $670,000 (zip 20910, 6-mo. closed) | 44 median (zip 20906) | Zip 20910: 30 active / 1 pending. Median asking $340,000, so unsold stock is mostly condos. |
| Gaithersburg | $780,500 (zip 20878, 6-mo. closed) | 43 median, homes for sale (Sept) | Zip 20878: 43 active / 2 pending. City-wide median list ~$590,000 (Sept). |
| Takoma Park | $599,000 (zip 20912, Sept) | About 35 (43 a year ago) | Inventory unavailable. |
Zip figures: Resideline snapshots, Oct 19, 2026. These cover a tracked sample of listings, not the full MLS. Resideline's “listing age” isn't days on market, so I don't use it as DOM. North Bethesda condos: bethesdachevychasecondos.com building report. Zip 20906: PropertyIQ. Gaithersburg city-wide and Takoma Park: Movoto, Sept 2026. Potomac August reference: foxessellfaster.com.
Active (light) vs. pending (dark) listings by zip. Source: Resideline zip snapshots, Oct 19, 2026. This is a tracked sample with small pending counts, so compare zips to each other, not to the county-wide 34 per 100. Potomac, Kensington, Takoma Park, and Bethesda 20814 weren't available this week.
Rockville's 20850 is the healthiest pipeline I track right now, at 4 pending against 35 active. Zip 20852 is the weakest. Even the luxury zips aren't immune: Bethesda's 20817 shows only 2 pendings against 39 actives, and Chevy Chase's 20815 shows 2 against 30.
How I'd use this if you're selling
- Price for October's buyer, not April's. You're up against 2,328 listings and the 952 sellers who already cut. Get it right on day one so you aren't the one chasing the market down.
- Detached homes in good shape are still a strong hand. Prices are holding, and homes priced to the last 90 days are still going under contract quickly.
- Condo owners in North Bethesda or Rockville: the units that sell get close to list, but it's taking around 70 days. Price it right on day one or plan to sit through the holidays.
- Ask me about a seller-paid rate buydown. At 7.40%, it usually beats the second price cut.
How I'd use this if you're buying
- You have more leverage now than at any point this year. Contracts are down a fifth from last year and price cuts hit a 2026 high, so use it.
- Condos are where the deals are. Ask for price, closing help, and inspection credits. Walk from buildings with a pending special assessment.
- Good detached homes still move. Have your pre-approval ready. You'll have more options, but nobody is giving houses away.
- Don't sit out waiting for 6%. When rates drop, the buyers who stepped back all come back at once, and you lose the leverage you have now. Let's run a 2-1 buydown or a seller credit before you write anything off. I'll show you the numbers both ways.
Have questions about your street, your building, or your timing? Reach out. I'll give you the straight answer, even if it's not what you were hoping to hear.
— Mark
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (10/15/26); Realtor.com county housing inventory data via FRED, Montgomery County, MD (active, pending, price-reduced, days on market, and median list price, Sept 2026); RPR Montgomery County Market Trends (Sept 2026); Redfin Montgomery County housing market page (Sept 2026); Bright MLS September 2026 Housing Market Report (GlobeNewswire, UrbanTurf, 10/12–10/13/26); Bright MLS August 2026 county report; North Bethesda condo market report (bethesdachevychasecondos.com); Resideline zip snapshots (10/19/26); PropertyIQ (20906); Movoto (Gaithersburg, 20912); foxessellfaster.com (Potomac, August).
Figures are from public sources as of Oct 19, 2026, and they're not an appraisal. Bright MLS's September county-level table wasn't accessible this week, so the county median comes from RPR and Redfin. Different sources measure different things, so ask me before you make a pricing decision.
Want the specifics for your street or building?
Reach out and I'll walk you through it.