Rates Finally Blinked. Buyers Haven't, Yet.

Here's my weekly read on Montgomery County real estate. The 30-year fixed dropped to 7.32%. Contracts are still at a five-year low for the sixth straight week. Canceled listings are up 43%. Prices are holding. Activity is not. One heads-up: no new monthly county data came out this week, so the county-level numbers below are still September's, and I've labeled them that way.

Rates: the first timeout in the other direction

Freddie Mac has the 30-year fixed at 7.32% for the week of October 22, down from 7.40%. The 15-year slipped to 6.68% from 6.71%. Don't call it a comeback yet. It's one week. But it's the first time this fall that a buyer's pre-approval got slightly better instead of worse.

Here's the payment math. On September's ~$610K county median with 20% down ($488K loan), principal and interest runs about $3,352 a month at 7.32%, versus ~$3,379 last week. The dip saved about $27 a month. A year ago at 6.19%, that same house was ~$2,986. Buyers are still about $366 a month behind last year.

The real story: sellers are pulling listings instead of cutting

Bright MLS's weekly numbers for the week ending October 18 show 4,164 new contracts across the region. That's down 15.5% from last year and the sixth straight week at a five-year low. Homes are taking a median of 34 days to go under contract, 5 days slower than last year. And canceled listings: 593, up 43.2%. (Bright labels these DC metro, so read them as regional direction, not Montgomery-only.)

That cancellation number is the tell. A lot of sellers with 3% mortgages don't haveto sell. So when the offers don't come, they pull the house and plan to try again in spring. That keeps the market from flooding with inventory. It also means the homes still listed right now mostly belong to people who actually want to move. That's good news if you're a buyer.

Prices are holding. The latest county median sold price (September) is about $610,000 per RPR, and Redfin's 3-month median (~$609,636) is up 2.5% year over year. Same September picture on supply: 2,328 active listings (+22.7%) against 800 pending (−21.0%), with 952 price reductions, a 2026 high. What's changing is the pace, not the value.

Where the deals are actually getting signed

Rockville's 20850 zip doubled its pendings this week. It now has the best pending-to-active ratio of the zips I track (0.26, up from 0.11). Bethesda 20817 woke up too, tripling off a small base. The North Bethesda/Rockville condo corridor (20852) is still stuck at 2.

North Bethesda condos: priced right sells, everything else waits

I keep saying the condo slowdown in North Bethesda and Rockville is sharper on the ground than the county numbers show. Here's this week:

• Zip 20852 (the condo-heavy North Bethesda/Rockville corridor): 57 active, 2 pending. Last week it was 64 and 2. Seven listings left, and none of them went to contract, so they were pulled or expired. The median asking price dropped to $399,900 from $432,450, and the 6-month closed median slipped to $530,000 from $555,000.
• North Bethesda condo buildings: 43 active, just 3 under contract (5 last week). The 50 that sold since late April averaged $598,470 at about 99.1% of list, but it took an average of 51 days.
• Rockville-only condo data: still no clean source this week, so I won't guess. 20852 is the best proxy.

New this week, I added Bethesda condos for comparison: 142 active, 44 under contract. More units are trading there. The 50 most recent sales averaged $616,361at about 98.2% of list. But they're on an even slower clock.

Bottom line on condos: a correctly priced unit still gets about 98–99% of list. It just takes two to three months now, not two to three weeks. If you're selling, price for the holidays. If you're buying, you have time and leverage. Use both.

How the 9 neighborhoods I work compare

Different sources cover different neighborhoods, so I've labeled where every number comes from. Where I couldn't find current data, the table says so. I'm not going to fill gaps with guesses.

How I'd use this if you're selling

• Pricing: rates dipped, but don't price like the buyers are coming back next week. Contracts are still at a five-year low. Price to the last 90 days of sales, not last spring.
• Single-family and well-priced attached: these are getting contracts. Bethesda and Rockville both jumped this week.
• Condo in North Bethesda or Rockville: expect 50–70 days even when priced right. Get the HOA docs ready on day one.
• Thinking about pulling it and relisting in spring? That's a legitimate play. Talk to me first, though. Buyers can see the listing history, and a seller-paid rate buydown might get it done now.

How I'd use this if you're buying

• Timing: rates are moving your way for the first time since early September. You haven't missed anything. Fewer contracts are being written than in any fall in five years.
• Condos: you've got real leverage. Ask for price, closing help, and inspection credits. Walk from buildings with pending assessments.
• Don't wait on a magic 6% rate: when rates really drop, everybody on the sidelines comes back at once. Right now you're playing against a thin field. Take advantage of it.

Questions on your neighborhood or your building? Call or text me. I'm happy to pull the real numbers for your street.

— Mark