Rates Just Hit 7.28%. Here's What That Means in Montgomery County.
Mortgage rates went up for the sixth straight week. Two weeks ago we were talking about crossing 7%. Now we're well past it.
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed hit 7.28%on October 1, up from 6.95% when I last wrote this. Here's the good news: prices in Montgomery County aren't falling apart. But who's buying, and how fast, is changing, and if you're buying or selling this fall you need to know that. Let's get into it.
The rate climb, in one picture
Four straight readings, four steps up: 6.76%, 6.95%, 7.03%, and now 7.28%. The 9/24 reading was the first time above 7% since January 2025. A year ago this number was 6.34%.
30-year fixed rate, weekly average. Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).
Here's what that does to a real payment. On the county median of $639,540 with 20% down (a $512K loan), principal and interest is now ~$3,503 a month, versus ~$3,183 a year ago. That's ~$320 more a monthfor the exact same house at the exact same price. That's the whole story right there.
What the county numbers are saying
The latest full month is August (September county numbers drop around October 9–10). Here's what Bright MLS shows for Montgomery County:
- Median sold price: $639,540, up 3.3% from last year. Prices are holding.
- Median days on market: 18. Still quick, but that number is pulled down by sharp, well-priced detached homes that still go in a weekend.
- Active listings: 2,023, up 18.3%. Buyers have more to choose from than they've had in years. Months of supply is 2.47, up 0.33 from last year.
- New pending sales: 697, down 15.8%. This is the one I'm watching. Pendings tell you where closings are headed, and they dropped before rates even crossed 7%.
Montgomery County, August 2026 vs. August 2025. Source: Bright MLS August 2026 Housing Market Report.
Think of it like a football game where one team is winning on the scoreboard but losing time of possession. Prices are still the score, because August closings are contracts signed back in June and July. Pending sales are possession, and buyers have had the ball less and less. Bright's weekly data for the week ending 9/27 points the same way across the whole Mid-Atlantic: showings down 14.3% and new contracts down 12.6% year over year, while active listings are up 17.8%.
Condos are where the market is softest
Bright MLS doesn't publish a free county-level split by housing type, so this is the whole DC metro, Montgomery County included. Treat it as directional. Even so, condos stand out.
Median days on market by housing type, DC metro, August 2026. Medians: detached $835,000 (0.0% YoY, 2.15 months of supply); townhome $588,000 (−0.7%, 2.37 months); condo $386,500 (−5.7%, 4.30 months). Source: Bright MLS via edwarddumi.com. Metro-wide, not Montgomery County only.
Condos are the only segment with a real price decline, double the days on market of detached homes, and nearly 2× the supply. Metro condo active listings were also up 28.2% YoY. Detached is flat on price and still moves fast.
The sharpest condo signal I've found yet: I've been saying for weeks that North Bethesda and Rockville condos are softer than the county numbers show. This week I found data that backs it up. One North Bethesda condo market report shows 40 condos for sale and only 4 under contract. That's ~3.6 months of supply, with 1 under contract for every 10 active. The ones that did sell went for 99.7% of list. So the market isn't dead. It just has zero patience for overpricing. Price it right and it sells. Price it like it's 2022 and it sits. Rockville-only condo data was harder to pin down, so I won't make up a number. Nearby Downtown Silver Spring, which is condo-heavy, is down 8.3% YoY and averaging 85 days on market.
My 9 neighborhoods, side by side
These are the areas I work every day. City-level data is messier than county data, so I'm flagging where it's shaky instead of pretending it's precise.
| City | Median sold price | Days on market | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Bethesda | Unavailable for August | ~59 to 101 (sources conflict) | Condos: 40 active, only 4 under contract |
| Rockville | ~$715,187 (3 mo. ending Aug, +6.7% YoY) | ~42 | Rockville-only condo data unavailable this week |
| Bethesda | $1,295,000 | 16 (median, latest 30 days) | Well-priced homes still move fast |
| Potomac | $1,274,157 (+6.2% YoY) | 48 | Another source shows $1.22M (−6% YoY), so direction is unclear |
| Chevy Chase | $1,030,000 (−9% YoY) | Unavailable | Down 9% on 32 sales. Worth a closer look |
| Kensington | Not reliable this week* | ~32 | Sample too small to trust a median |
| Silver Spring | ~$600,000 (flat YoY) | ~74 | Downtown condos softest: $321K, −8.3% YoY, 85 days |
| Gaithersburg | ~$546,031 (3 mo. ending Aug) | ~47 | Most affordable of the nine |
| Takoma Park | $595,000 | 43 (avg; 39 a year ago) | A touch slower than last year |
*Kensington's reported median ($1.2M, +36.7% YoY) is based on very few sales, and the median list price is $781K, so I'm not putting a number on it. Prices are August or 3 months ending August. Days-on-market figures mix medians and averages depending on the source. Sources: Redfin city/neighborhood pages, foxessellfaster.com (Bethesda), Long & Foster Market Minute (Chevy Chase), Houzeo (Silver Spring), bethesdachevychasecondos.com (North Bethesda condos).
If you're selling
- Price for the buyers you'll actually meet. Your comps are from summer, when rates were in the 6s. The buyer walking through your house this month is looking at 7.28%.
- Get it right in week one. Well-priced listings still sell close to asking. Overpriced ones sit, and then you're chasing the market down.
- Think about a rate buydown before a price cut. A seller credit that lowers the buyer's rate can do more for their monthly payment than a price cut.
If you're buying
- You have options again. Active listings are up 18.3% from last year and fewer buyers are competing with you.
- Look at the listings that have been sitting. Anything past 30 days, especially condos, is where sellers are open to concessions and rate buydowns.
- Run the numbers both ways. If rates drop, competition comes right back. Buying in a quieter market and refinancing later is a real strategy. I'll show you the math and let you decide.
Bottom line: prices are holding, buyers are thinning out, and condos are the soft spot, especially in North Bethesda. Rates are running this market right now. If you want to know what this means for your specific house or search, reach out. That's what I'm here for.
— Mark
Sources:Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (10/1/2026: 7.28%; 9/24/2026: 7.03%); Bright MLS August 2026 Housing Market Report (county tables and press release, 9/10/26); Bright MLS weekly report, week ending 9/27/2026 (via TysonsToday); DC-metro segment data (Bright MLS, Aug 2026) via edwarddumi.com; North Bethesda condo market report (bethesdachevychasecondos.com, sales 5/8–10/1/2026); Redfin city and neighborhood pages; foxessellfaster.com Bethesda market page; Long & Foster Market Minute (Chevy Chase); Houzeo (Silver Spring).
Payment estimates are principal and interest only on a $512K loan (20% down on the county median) and exclude taxes and insurance. Some city figures come from sources that disagree with each other — normal for real estate data, and noted rather than hidden.
Want the specifics for your street or building?
Reach out and I'll walk you through it.